000
FXUS64 KLUB 211119
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
619 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020

.AVIATION...
Satellite is detecting low stratus that is developing quickly
across the northern South and Rolling Plains, and may begin to
affect KCDS in the next 1-2 hours. IFR CIGs will be possible in
addition to patchy fog at KCDS.

There is also potential for IFR CIGs to develop and affect the
Caprock terminals this morning as well, in addition to MVFR
visibilities. This is accounted for in the TAFs, and satellite
trends will be monitored closely with amends as necessary. Low
stratus and fog will begin to dissipate by the late morning and
early afternoon hours, with VFR prevailing thereafter for all
three terminals.

Sincavage

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 233 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020/

SHORT TERM...
In the immediate term, models have backed off on the thick fog
potential for this morning although low stratus is still likely
closer to daybreak. Zonal flow aloft will begin to back over the
next 24 hours as a short wave moves across the southwestern CONUS.
A weak quasi-stationary front currently located across the extreme
southeastern Texas Panhandle will lift north today allowing southerly
winds to develop across the entire FA. A persistent dryline will
continue to remain nearly stationary near the Texas/New Mexico state
line allowing for low level moisture to remain in place across West
Texas.

LONG TERM...
Minimal change has been made for the extended forecast period, as
the previous assessments remain largely on track. Warm and breezy
conditions are expected Thursday as temperatures climb into the
upper 80s across the CWA, which will lead to the potential for
elevated fire weather concerns mainly near the Texas/New Mexico
state line.

A strong, polar cold front is forecast to near the forecast area
shortly after midnight CDT Friday, with breezy conditions to follow
in its wake in addition to the possibility of a low stratus cloud
deck. Pressure rises are expected to be modest behind the front, at
around ~2 mb/6 hr, and therefore surface winds are currently
forecast to remain below Wind Advisory criteria early Friday. Winds
will veer by the later afternoon hours Friday while also decreasing
in speed as the pressure gradient relaxes as the ~1030 mb surface
high builds into the region. Temperatures overnight Friday into
Saturday morning may reach freezing across areas in the northwestern
South Plains and southwestern Texas Panhandle, though a hard freeze
is not expected.

Another polar cold front will move through the region Sunday, with
breezy conditions and a sharp temperature gradient to follow.
Overnight temperatures into Monday morning will fall into the lower
30s and perhaps even the upper 20s across the aforementioned areas
in the previous paragraph. The airmass will be quite cold, with
temperatures struggling to break out of the middle 40 deg F range on
Monday. There exists a low chance for precipitation across the CWA
at this time, with the potential for light snow showers/wintry mix
in the northwestern South Plains during the nighttime hours early
next week.

Sincavage

FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions do not appear favorable at this
time for Thursday; however, the combination of ERCs >=70th
percentile, above normal temperatures, and southwest winds at around
~15-20 knots may support the potential for short-fused, elevated to
near-critical fire weather conditions near the Texas/New Mexico
state line and the southwestern Texas Panhandle on Thursday
afternoon.

Sincavage

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

09

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion