000
FXUS64 KLUB 151715
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1215 PM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

.AVIATION...
CIGs will continue to remain low, likely in the IFR category,
through most of this TAF cycle. Convection has pushed east of PVW
and LBB and should be east of CDS by mid to late afternoon. VIS
has improved through the late morning and should remain VFR going
into 00Z. We could likely see a drop in VIS once again after
midnight. Conditions should begin to improve to VFR at all
terminals around/after 15Z tomorrow as winds shift to the north.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021/

SHORT TERM...

The upper level low that has been anchored over the Great Basin
region finally begins to have forward progression this morning. The
low will drift east before eventually opening up across the high
plains region tomorrow morning. This will maintain broad zonal to
southwest flow aloft over the CWA. As the low pivots eastward a
shortwave will be sent over FA. Met with increased moisture, the
disturbance will spur weak lift and periodic rain chances throughout
the morning. Rain chances will decrease from west to east this
afternoon as the attendant Pacific front pushes into eastern NM and
drier air filters in. Elevated instability will be enough to include
a thunder mention in the forecast. With 500+ J/kg of elevated CAPE
over the Rolling Plains, a few stronger storms could produce small
hail and brief heavy rainfall. However, in general, all instability
should remain weak and elevated suggesting storms will remain sub-
severe. Tonight into tomorrow morning another round of fog is
expected across the entire area.

LONG TERM...
Friday, as the aforementioned Great Basin upper level low ejects
into the Plains a surface low will slide eastward just south of
the FA opening the door for a cold front to move through the
region during the day. Pacific moisture will be drawn up ahead of
the cold front and, depending on the trajectory of the upper level
low, the Rolling Plains could see one last shot of precipitation
Friday morning ahead of the frontal passage. Cold air will will
advect behind the front with windy northerly winds. Temperatures
behind the front will fall into the 50s Saturday with a freeze
possible across northwest counties Friday through Sunday mornings.
Dry air quickly sweeps in behind the front drying things out
Saturday. Sunday, as a second upper low shifts southward over
Arizona and then eastward into New Mexico, synoptic lifting could
allow for rain showers across the NM/TX border.

Dry weather with a slight warm up continues Monday as westerly
surface flow returns. This is quickly followed by another cold front
expected to pass across the CWA early Tuesday with strong northerly
winds. Long range guidance shows disagreement for the weather
pattern next week. However, another chance of precipitation looks
possible mid week.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

51/99/99

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion