673
FXUS64 KLUB 151106
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
606 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 546 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026
- Scattered thunderstorms, some severe, are forecast to develop
across portions of the Caprock and Rolling Plains Friday afternoon
and evening.
- Critical fire weather conditions are forecast to evolve across
the Caprock and most of the Rolling Plains Friday afternoon.
- Hot and breezy weather is expected through Monday, with storm
chances in the Rolling Plains and an area-wide fire danger each day.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday morning)
Issued at 1110 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
In the mid/upper-levels, a vertically-stacked cyclone was rotating
over Lake Winnepegosis, with a belt of broadly cyclonic flow
encompassing the western half of the U.S. due to the persistent
split-flow regime. The southern-stream trough was more-broad and
centered over the Desert Southwest, with the leading edge of the 250
mb jet streak now over W TX as per the 15/00Z objectively analyzed
UA charts. The 15/00Z RAOB from WFO MAF observed 75 kt winds at 250
mb, with WFO AMA observing 55 kt, with a corridor of difluent flow
advecting directly over the CWA. Scattered, high-based convection
from earlier in the afternoon is beginning to dissipate as of 0210Z,
with benign conditions expected for the rest of the night and into
the morning hours Friday. Farther southwest, a belt of vigorous and
moist, isentropic ascent originating from the far northeastern
Pacific Ocean continues to advect over W TX in conjuction with the
arrival of the 250 mb jet streak. This corridor of moist, high-level
ascent will be maintained through the short-term period as the
positively-tilted trough ejects eastward over the southern Rocky
Mountains late in the day Friday. Thunderstorms, some severe, are
forecast to return Friday afternoon and evening across portions of
the Caprock and the Rolling Plains.
At the surface, a convectively-contaminated boundary-layer exists
across the Rolling Plains, with winds restoring to the south on the
Caprock, as the mesoscale high previously generated from convective
clusters has since dissipated. The dryline has since translated
westward and is anchored near the NM state line, and will remain
stalled throughout the overnight hours. Farther north, the synoptic
cold front associated with the decayed, negatively-tilted trough and
vertically-stacked cyclone along the SK/MB border was draped across
the HWY-400 corridor in southwestern KS and into southeastern CO.
The front will continue to sag southward during the nighttime hours,
with the front stalling to the north of the CWA and in the TX PH by
late Friday morning. As the low-amplitude trough pivots over the
southern Rocky Mountains, the dryline will once again propagate
eastward into the Rolling Plains, with the potential for a dryline
bulge to evolve across the far southeastern TX PH by the mid-
afternoon hours as cyclogenesis in the OK/TX PH results in the
formation of a triple point. Intense surface heating is expected
Friday, with highs peaking in the middle-upper 90s on the Caprock
and in excess of 100 degrees in the Rolling Plains as mixing heights
ascend into the mid-levels. The superposition of the 250 mb jet
streak over the CWA and the ejection of the low-amplitude, shortwave
trough will generate a 994-996 mb cyclone across the northern TX PH;
and the resultant isallobaric response will result in gradient winds
increasing to 20-30 mph as the dryline mixes eastward into the
Rolling Plains by mid-afternoon Friday. The very deep boundary-layer
mixing, moderately strong winds, and low RH will garner a critical
fire weather risk across the Caprock and most of the Rolling Plains.
While the dryline will stall east of the Caprock, LCLs/LFCs will be
similar to today and rooted above the top of the western edge of the
subtropical airmass (that is, above the dryline circulation). As the
leading wave of shortwave perturbations emerge over W TX in concert
with peak heating, scattered, high-based storms are once again
forecast to develop across portions of the Caprock and Rolling
Plains during the afternoon and evening hours Friday. PoPs were once
again raised from the dry initialization of the NBM, with a broad
brush of 30-40 percent PoPs outlined across the CWA Friday afternoon
and evening. Similar to today, damaging wind gusts between 60-70 mph
will be the primary hazard, although isolated instances of hail up
to quarter size will be possible as the high-based cells cross over
the dryline and ingest increasingly buoyant air. Reductions to
visibility from blowing dust will be common, particularly on the
Caprock. (Some locales observed zero-mile visibility this past
afternoon.) Storm chances will wane from west-to-east, with storms
dissipating after dark. Southwesterly winds will remain slightly
breezy heading into Saturday morning, yielding warm lows area-wide.
Sincavage
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
The long term will see a typical spring like pattern involving a
sloshing dryline each day through at least Monday. Long wave
troughing in the western CONUS from Saturday through Monday and
southwest flow aloft will give rise to surface cyclogenesis in lee
of the Rockies each afternoon. The dryline will likely mix east each
afternoon somewhere off the caprock leaving at least a portion of
the FA within the more moist near surface air. Although large scale
ascent will be lacking through this time period, the presence of the
dryline will favor at least slight chances of convection each
afternoon off the caprock. Model differences start to become
significant around Tuesday of next week with the ejection of the
western CONUS trough. A cold front can be expected next week
anywhere from late Monday through Wednesday on the timing. Whenever
this front does push through the area it will bring a break from the
extreme heat.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail outside of convection.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across the region
this afternoon and evening and could affect the terminals.
Confidence in timing and location of convection is too low to
mention in the TAF at this time, but any storms that affects a
terminal has the potential to create brief erratic wind gusts up
to 50 knots. Check density altitude.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1110 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Modest RH recovery is expected through the predawn hours across the
forecast area, peaking near 35 percent along the NM state line to
near 50 percent along the 100th meridian. Surface winds will restore
to the southwest during the early morning hours following the
episode of storms the evening prior, which will keep morning lows on
the mild side across W TX, with lows in the middle 70s expected
across the Rolling Plains by dawn. Surface winds will remain veered
out of the southwest for most of the forecast area today, with wind
speeds increasing 20-30 mph amidst hot to very hot surface
temperatures near or in excess of 100 degrees. Highs are forecast to
peak near 104-105 degrees in the Rolling Plains, with RH falling to
as low as 8 percent this afternoon. This will result in critical
fire weather conditions for the Caprock and most of the Rolling
Plains this afternoon and evening. In addition to the critical fire
weather risk, the dryline is forecast to remain stalled in the
Rolling Plains, leading to a risk for isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Despite the dryline remaining parked in the
Rolling Plains, some storms may also develop on the Caprock and be
very-high-based similar to Thursday. Some storms may be severe, with
damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph possible that would result
in sudden and erratic changes in direction. Cloud-to-ground
lightning may occur in rain-free areas. Winds will remain slightly
breezy tonight into Saturday morning while prevailing out of the
south-southwest, with RH recovering above 60 percent for the Rolling
Plains and most of the Caprock as the dryline retreats westward.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
evening for TXZ021>037-039>043.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...51
NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion