817
FXUS64 KLUB 150425
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1025 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Breezy conditions continue through the next 24 hours, with
   slightly cooler temperatures Saturday afternoon behind a cold
   front.

 - Cold temperatures expected mid-week following a cold front
   Tuesday, and extremely cold wind chills are possible Tuesday
   night through Thursday morning.

 - Chances of wintry precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday
   morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 226 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025

Southwesterly flow aloft will strengthen and back to a more
southerly direction tonight ahead of a broad upper level trough axis
currently centered over the Great Basin. Broad surface troughing
extending from SE CO into eastern NM has resulted in mild southerly
flow across West Texas this afternoon, which will remain relatively
breezy tonight as the trough axis shifts southeastward over the TX
Panhandle into western OK. This combined with an abundance of high
cloud cover will result in a relatively mild overnight period with
above freezing lows expected area-wide tonight. Saturday will be
fairly breezy once again across the region, with west winds expected
during the morning hours before a cold front results in a shift to
northwesterly winds during the afternoon. Models generally agree
that the front will clear the area by mid-afternoon, but the usual
uncertainty in precise frontal timing results in a low confidence
temperature forecast for Saturday afternoon. At this time we expect
a long enough period of downslope westerly flow during the first
half of the day to allow temperatures to rise into the upper 50s to
low 60s across southern portions of the South Plains and Rolling
Plains, with a quicker transition to northwest winds likely to keep
highs capped in the low 50s across the southern TX Panhandle. Very
little in the way of low and midlevel moisture will result in this
being a dry frontal passage, with plenty of sunshine expected across
the region on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025

The upper level trough will reach over the region by early evening
tomorrow before continuing to track eastward. Lift associated with
the trough and some moisture will bring small chances of wintry
precipitation to the far Southern Texas Panhandle. At the same time
a surface low has pushed a front through the area. Breezy northerly
winds following the FROPA will weaken in the evening. A surface
ridge will cool temperatures again on Sunday with highs in the 40s
across the region. On Monday, a lee surface low will track over Nw
Mexico shifting winds to the southwest resulting in temperatures
increasing back to the 60s.

Winds will shift from the north to northeast as a cold front pushes
through the region on Tuesday. A significant surface ridge will set
up over the Central Plains ushering in cold arctic air cooling high
temperatures to the 30s through Thursday. A positively tilted
shortwave trough will bring chances of wintry precipitation Tuesday
night through Wednesday morning although chances seem low at the
moment as lift associated with the trough is weak, therefore left
NBM PoPs as is. Extremely cold wind chills in the negative teens are
possible Tuesday night into Wednesday and Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1025 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025

Winds will remain slightly breezy tonight while continuing to veer
westward ahead of an incoming cold front. The cold front is
expected to move through KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW, by the early
afternoon hours. Winds will shift to the north immediately behind
the front, and will be accompanied by gusts up to 30 kt. MVFR
stratus is forecast to affect KCDS, in addition to some light
sprinkles/rain showers. Else, VFR will prevail with post-frontal
winds diminishing near sunset tomorrow evening.

Sincavage

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...09

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion