FXUS64 KLUB 250527

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1227 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022

...New AVIATION...

(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022

The early Saturday afternoon regional weather analysis shows a band
of mid-level cloudiness and some weak echo returns from the
southeastern TX Panhandle into west-central Oklahoma. Meanwhile,
further north and west, the leading edge of the much-anticipated
cold front had nudged into northern portions of Parmer and Castro
Counties...extending from there northeast across the Texas
Panhandle. A pre-frontal trough has slipped into the northwest South
Plains bringing a westerly wind shift and some convergence along a
line from around Muleshoe up to Tulia but so far, cumulus
development along this axis has been minimal. South of the front,
temperatures are warming up quickly, at 1;45 pm it was already 95F
at Estelline and 90-95 across most of the Rolling Plains. The front
is not expected to move much through the afternoon and evening
hours. There is a slim shot at a sprinkle or light rain shower
across Swisher, Briscoe, Hall and Childress Counties, but most
locations will be warm and dry. Another mild night is in store, but
the front will start to move back south as it gets a solid shove
from a shortwave trough diving through the Central and Northern
Plains. The front will likely be moving through the forecast area
early Sunday morning, but the gusty northeast winds won`t pickup
until late morning. Much of the guidance suggests that there will be
at least some isolated shower and t-storm activity developing along
the front Sunday morning. This potential seems to be highest across
the southern and southwest portions of the South Plains - shifting
south of the area by mid-afternoon following the progress of the
front. While the forecast area will be generally 4-8 degrees cooler
Sunday behind the front, it appears we`ll still be above average for
late September - for example at Lubbock we`re forecasting a high of
87 vs the average high of 83.


(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022

Surface flow will begin moving from easterly to southerly by Monday
afternoon as the surface high behind the cold front pushes further
southeast. The cool surface flow in the morning will allow for
morning lows to be in the low to upper 50s area wide with highs
warming into the low to upper 80s by the afternoon. The pattern then
becomes rather benign as the upper ridge to our west moves over the
region keeping the FA warm and dry. Models differ in the strength
and overall longevity of the upper ridge. The ECMWF has the
strongest and longest lasting ridge even as an upper low moves into
the Pacific Northwest and moves eastward to the Northern Plains. The
GFS partially erodes the upper ridge and builds it westward as the
aforementioned upper low pushes eastward across the northern CONUS
by late week. This stronger upper low is also progged to push a cold
front into the region this coming weekend. Overall the forecast will
remain generally unchanged with temps warming into the upper
80s/upper 90s by Saturday.


(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022

Continuing VFR expected at all sites through this TAF cycle. Winds
will gradually turn northerly overnight as a cold front drops
southward through the region. NE winds are expected to strengthen
by mid-morning with sustained speeds approaching 20 kt, eventually
weakening by late evening with more modest speeds expected after
sunset. One concern will be the potential development of scattered
TSRA this afternoon, mainly near and south of KLBB. Will keep
mention out of the TAF for now given high uncertainty, but erratic
gusts will be possible through the afternoon hours.





NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion