775
FXUS64 KLUB 141918
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
218 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024

Persistent mid to upper level ridging from the Big Bend to the
Colorado Rockies will continue to weaken overnight and all but
disappear Tuesday as a modest upper low over the Great Basin and a
broad, deep upper low anchored over southern Ontario and Quebec
essentially bridge together. The dissipating ridge combined with a
significant shift to the south/southeast of the eastern North America
trough will help a strong cold front drive southward through the
southern Plains during the day Tuesday. Timing of this front will be
key (and problematic) to the tomorrow`s forecast, especially in
relation to the temperature forecast. MOS is cool relative to NBM
and model surface temperatures and would win out with an early
frontal timing. For now timing is pretty good as far as entering the
forecast area around or just after 18Z. The dry, warm air mass south
of the front combined with west to southwest low level flow and
compressional warming ahead of the front should result in a rapid
rise in temperatures Tuesday morning and early afternoon followed by
falling temperatures behind the front. This scenario would favor the
warmer end of the range of possibilities. This is in line with
previous forecasts and will keep on this tack this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024

We will finally see fall weather arrive this week with a pattern
change by the end of the week. The first issue will be a cold front
moving through on Tuesday afternoon with the strongest winds during
the evening hours. Strong surface pressure rises will pick up
towards the 00Z timeframe and persist through the evening hours.
Progged pressure rises are on the order of 9-10mb/3hr. This will
bring some 20-25kt winds across the entire region on Tuesday evening
and diminishing overnight into Wednesday morning as a 1032mb surface
ridge slides down the Missouri River valley. Temperatures will
finally return to seasonal averages or lower beginning on Wednesday
in the post frontal airmass. Low level return flow will begin as
early as Wednesday night as an upper level ridge slides east giving
way to cyclonic flow in the western CONUS.

A significant change in the weather pattern is expected for the
second half of the week as troughing deepens in the western CONUS.
Thursday will begin the stronger low level moisture flux into the
region. A short wave trough will move into the Intermountain West up
to the southern Canadian Rockies. Strong surface cyclogenesis will
develop in the northern Plains as a response to this strengthening
trough. Low level moisture will surge northward from the Gulf of
Mexico under strong low level southerly/southeasterly winds. The
southern portion of this trough is expected to separate from the
main trough and form a cut off low in the southwestern US late this
week. Models are in good agreement in this becoming a cut off low
but differences in model guidance creep in as it begins to phase
back into the larger scale flow late in the weekend into early next
week. With the cut off low expected to be west of the four-corners,
large scale ascent over West Texas will not be incredibly strong
until this low begins to phase into the large scale flow. For Friday
and Saturday, most lift will be driven by moist isentropic ascent
well out ahead of the low. Cloudy and cool conditions will severely
limit the amount of available surface instability with any thunder
chances likely rising from the instability generated by the moist
isentropic ascent. Therefore, severe chances will be very low.
Nonetheless, precipitation chances will still be high on Friday and
Saturday given the above reasoning. Better chances may exist on
Sunday into Monday depending on when the low ejects out of the
southwestern US. Much stronger lift associated with the low will
move overhead as this occurs currently forecast to be late Sunday
into early Monday. But spread is high in the ensemble forecast
guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024

VFR conditions to continue through the TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...07

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion